Can Opera Unite Succeed?…

It should come as no surprise to anyone that the folks that developed the Opera browser have been hard at work on something new and different. After all, IE, Firefox, Chrome, and Safari pretty much have innovation in the pure browser space covered.

Last week, Opera Software announced the result of that effort - a browser based collaboration platform called Opera Unite. Here is the video they put together to introduce their new offering:

I’m really torn about Unite. While I’m a big proponent of seeing choice, capability, and control pushed out to the edge of the web, I’m just not sure how well Unite will be able to deliver on this promise in practical terms.

First, there are three big marketplace trends that are riding against this.

  • The growing acceptance of cloud based services. Web email is the best example of this. Almost everyone I know is comfortable with having a web based email address. It’s not that they don’t understand the level of personal information that gets communicated via email, they simply find it to be the most efficient way for them to integrate what they see as a “must have” capability. But even beyond email, the continued growth of services like Facebook and LinkedIn speaks to the markets’ acceptance of using intermediary service providers to deliver a broad range of socially anchored functionality. This is not a trend I see reversing any time soon, so selling against it may fail to resonate with most people.
  • Mobile computing has become mainstream. While there may be “always on” broadband Internet connectivity running to many homes globally, there is typically not an equivalent ‘always on’ computer sitting behind it. For most people, the only device they keep on all the time is an iPhone or Blackberry. And with a growing consumer preference for laptops over desktops, there may not even be a computer in the house most times. If a model for sharing demands coordination - requiring people to be online at the same time - it creates a barrier to adoption. This will be a big challenge for Unite to get past.
  • Search is the dominant way to navigate the web. Most people today struggle with the volume of content available to them that they need to deal with. Web search is one of the key tools they use to discover, sort through, and manage it. And while search engines do a pretty good job crawling the public web, they have no way of crawling the ‘deep web’ - the private servers that live behind firewalls or have passwords. And this presents a unique problem for Unite users. While Unite does allow for sharing content at a ‘public’ level, one of it’s key value propositions is that it also lets people control access to more specific content they may have. The implication here is that these “access controlled” items won’t be discoverable via the normal search tools most people use - even if they have the rights to access them. And given the way things work in practice, if someone can’t find something on Google, to them it doesn’t exist.

These trends tap in to the way people work and interact with technology. Overcoming them will require Unite to deliver something so compelling and unique that people would be willing to go out of their way to adopt it. Any hope for that would most likely to come in the form of applications people develop on the Unite platform.

And that is a tough position for Opera to be in.

On top of that, there are also a few significant technical issues that can weigh on adoption of an offering like Unite. The two biggest ones I see are in architecture and security:

  • There is still a middleman. From what I can tell, Unite isn’t a hubless P2P service architecture. While files are not stored on a centralized server, Opera still controls all of the routing in the service. The only way anyone can connect to a peer is via a subdomain that needs to be resolved through Opera’s local DNS servers. This means that governmental agencies that wish to limit free speech and access to peers will only need to subvert access to a single domain to shut the network down.
  • Security is light weight. Running a web server on a computer creates a much broader surface area for attack. Unlike sharing that takes place in a cloud computing model, outside people will be connecting directly to your computer and reading files directly off your hard drive. Given the vulnerabilities that have been found to exist even in more mature web connected software, I would not be comfortable placing a new release like this on any system that contained confidential files, passwords, etc. It would be terrible to have your hard drive wiped. It would be even worse to have your identity stolen. It’s unfortunate, but this is the kind of world we live in.

With all of this said, I really do like the concept being promoted by Opera Unite. True edge based connectivity has the potential to change the nature of many things we do on the web. Creating a common platform for social applications is also a compelling concept. Unfortunately, it think these ambitious goals are simply too big for any single company to take on alone.

For Unite to be successful on a broad level, I think that Opera will need to make it open source, and let the market work through the myriad issues that would have otherwise conspired to thwart a single vendor approach. Alternatively, they could package it as an internal corporate collaboration solution, and develop a more conventional business model around selling it.

Unfortunately, I don’t think Opera Software isn’t planing on doing either of these things. And while I would love to see a positive outcome for Unite, I just don’t see success coming from the path they are on.

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The New iPhone Is Here!…

My new iPhone 3G S has arrived…

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I’m excited to dig in to it in depth, and once I do, I’ll post in detail on my experience with it. Before that, I want to share some photos of my unboxing of it:

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I’m already impressed by the 3.0 software update which I’ve had for a couple of days now, and I’m really looking forward to the speed increase that comes with the new hardware.

For those also getting your new iPhones today - enjoy!

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iPhone 3.0 Update Comes Today…

Probably the biggest piece of the new iPhone 3G S release is coming out today…

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I know the new handset won’t arrive until Friday, but Apple will be releasing the iPhone 3.0 software update sometime this afternoon New York time. In many ways, this release is something of a “catch-up”, adding some fairly standard features like cut and paste and MMS support. But there are also some key foundational features that will help solidify Apple’s lead on the application front. Probably the three most significant ones are:

  • Push Notification will allow developers to send dynamic notifications to users via hosted functionality. This could have applications in financial services (news and price alerting), healthcare (eg - notifications around taking medications), and even gaming (letting friends know you are available to play online) - just to name a few.
  • In-App Purchasing will allow a whole new class of applications to be developed. For example, the iPhone Kindle could now include a book store as part of the application, or you could order and pay for your Starbuck’s on the train simply pick it up on your way to the office.
  • CalDAV Support will lay the foundation for syncing up all of the different calendars you deal with (Google, Yahoo, etc). It could even allow for some interesting collaborative hosted applications (Think - “find and schedule a time in all these people calendars when we can meet for coffee”) as well as more integrated updates (think - “I bought a ticket on Ticketmaster and the event is now added to my calendar automatically”).

Until it arrives, think of the following screen as part of a character building exercise reminding you that patience is a virtue.

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This should be good…

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The Mobile Disruption (Part 1)…

I was given a brief demo a few day’s ago of a beta version of the open source Moblin operating system. I went into it thinking: “Just what we need, yet another Linux variant”, but came out of it with a very different impression. Unlike more traditional operating systems, Moblin doesn’t try to be a generic foundation for any type of system, application, or user. Instead, it provides a more tailored experience built around the typical work flows of mobile users. It combines lightweight application support - with browsing, communications, and media playback - in a coheasive interface optimized for netbook screen size and power. This video will give you a quick introduction:

While I am quite impressed with Moblin, it isn’t the first OS targeted at this space. Linux vendor Xandros recently released Presto, a similar attempt to strip away most of the operating system details that can get in the way of a person simply using a device to get stuff done. Though both are based on Linux, these platforms are specifically not aimed at the “hardcore geek” Linux demographic. Their goal is to provide “run and gun” computing - letting people quickly get on, do something fast, and shut right down. They are not just targeting mainstream computer users - they are also targeting mainstream consumers that don’t fit the typical computer buyer demographic.

This new approach to operating systems recognizes that a rapid shift toward mobile computing is starting to take place. It is powered in large part by the runaway success of Apple’s App Store for the iPhone/iPod Touch platform, as well as the growing consumer adoption of netbook devices. While these devices are different in nature, both offer viable alternatives to more traditional computer usage. The “lower cost, easy on, always there” aspect of small, mobile devices is starting to trump the “higher price, fuller featured” aspects of full size laptops.

And it’s creating havoc in the software industry right now.

Software application vendors became obsessed with adding new features to their products. They attracted new users by delivering these extra features with each release at a similar price point to the previous release. They wanted to generate a perception of increasing value for the money spent. The goal was not just to get new people buying a product, but to sustain the lucrative revenue that came from existing users upgrading their now “feature deficient” software every 12-18 months. Adding features was the only way to make this model work.

Operating system vendors - specifically Microsoft - took a different approach. They aggressively pushed OEM agreements with all of the PC systems manufactures, and buried the cost of the operating system into the cost people paid for the computer. From a consumer’s perspective, the operating system came “free” with the hardware. They counted less on adding new features and more on new hardware sales to drive their revenue. And hardware sales were driven by PC manufacturers creating faster, more capable systems at roughly the same price points as the previous generation of hardware.

So why does mobile computing present such a problem?

Mobile computing is all about simplicity - getting things done quickly and easily. It doesn’t make sense to have products with hundreds of seldom used features crammed onto lower powered devices with smaller screens. There is a certain zen to the mobile computing experience that focuses people on what is really important to them. It creates a mindset that sees feature overload as diminishing a product’s value - not adding to it. And that mindset runs counter to the revenue model application vendors have counted on for the last two decades.

Operating system vendors face a different challenge from the mobile marketplace. Folks like Microsoft were able to leverage new hardware sales so profitably because of Moore’s Law - available computing power doubled every 18 months while the price stayed the same. Hardware vendors always had something new to replace the “old version”. But the push to mobile devices has flipped the benefit offered by Moore’s Law on its head. Instead of looking to double computing power, netbook providers are looking to ride the curve down and halve the price in that same timeframe.

Netbooks Under $200

The lower that the prices of these devices go, the less room there is to hide the cost of the operating system. This has driven most netbook manufactures to offer a Linux based derivative as a baseline system, and charge extra if someone want to take a version with Windows instead. It’s not clear that Microsoft, even with Windows 7, has a good answer for this. And if mobile is the real growth market of the next decade, they will need to come up with a viable offering in this space - not an artificially crippled version of their “mainstream” operating system.

——

You can sense a major realignment starting to form in the technology industry. Mobile computing, open source, software as a service, and search as a platform are all pressuring the status-quo from different directions.

This will be a very different industry 5 years from now.

Maybe sooner…

In The Mobile Disruption (Part 2), I’ll take a closer look at what Apple is doing in this space. There are some exciting things going on in Cupertino beyond the new iPhone 3G S.

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BING: Microsoft’s New “Decision Engine”…

Microsoft’s new search engine “BING” certainly looks interesting.

BING is a lightweight semantic search service integrating the technology Microsoft got when they acquired PowerSet with their current LIVE search platform. It seems to be trying to address the key frustration people have with traditional web search tools - namely the lack of structure in the results that are returned. Outside of common topics, it can sometimes take a fair amount of digging through pages of headlines for people today to find what they are looking for.

Microsoft sees this disaffection with the search status-quo as the approach they can use to go after Google. Their intention is pretty clear from this video introducing BING:

Technically, getting BING to work as promised will be a huge challenge for Microsoft. People search for all kinds of things. After you get beyond the more scripted result sets seen in these demonstration searches, how well will BING really perform? Can Microsoft’s approach really scale up to cover a meaningful percentage of the web and cover a broad enough set of subject domains to attract a large following. While I really like BING at an aspirational level, I can’t ignore the many “product visions” from Microsoft that far over-sold what ultimately got delivered in their final products.

Remember the promise of “Longhorn” aka Vista?:

But even assuming BING can live up to it’s billing on a technical level, it will probably have another issue to deal with: the limits of what Microsoft (or any search vendor) can do with the content they crawl. Unlike the more tradition approach to web search, BING seems to mine various sites for more detailed information, pulling it together into more thematic views. The richness of these views could potentially obviate the need for people to click back to the source sites to still get the information they want - something that would certainly be frowned upon by those content creators counting on receiving click-thru traffic. The high level of content extraction required here is a new area in web search that has yet to establish any accepted “terms of engagement” between all of the involved parties.

With all of this said, Microsoft may finally be on the road to having a viable answer to Google’s dominance. BING seems to be a big step up from their current LIVE search, and is probably better aligned with how people would like to experience web search than Google presently is. They will need to aggressively market it, which is something Microsoft appears more than capable of doing. And at only about 8% market share in web search today, moving the needle a meaningful amount probably wont be that difficult for them to accomplish. The key to getting advertisers to follow will be building up and sustaining some momentum around whatever market share gains they make. That’s what will make BING successful in the long term.

But all of this assumes that BING delivers on the promise - that the results BING returns are highly relevant to the searches being done and easy for a user to navigate.

And at this point, that’s still a really big assumption…

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Ticketmaster’s Irving Azoff On The Music Industry…

Irving Azoff, CEO of Ticketmaster, talked at length about the state of the music industry at the Wall Street Journal’s AllThingsDigital D7 conference yesterday.

As the head of the largest concert ticketing company in the US, his views are clearly skewed to live music being at the center of the music industry’s future fortunes. I think that is only partly true. One of the biggest reason the recorded music business is in such bad shape today is that the business model around it is completely disconnected from the realities of the marketplace. People pay for bottled water, so clearly “free” isn’t the only criteria people use when choosing how to access a product. Azoff is spot on when pointing out the horrible job music executives have done in transitioning the industry over to digital.

Here is an edited clip of his interview with Kara Swisher:

There are also a lot of other great interviews happening at this year’s D7 event, so a visit to the AllThingsDigital site would definitely be worth your time.

NOTE: An RSS feed of updates from D7 is available here.

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