Apple’s IPad Event: Looking Beyond The iPad…

There has been so much written about the iPad itself over the few days that I don’t think my fawning over it would add much to the discussion.
blog-ipad

Do I think there will be more in the released version than we saw in the presentation? Yes. Am I excited about the potential of the device? Without a doubt. Will I get one when it finally goes on sale? Absolutely! And though I am pretty pumped about ordering one, there is clearly still a lot of speculation in the media over the true market demand for a device like the iPad. Passions seem high on both sides. Given everything that we still DON’T know about the final functionality of the software/OS and about what types of new content will end up in the various ‘iStores’ by the time the iPad is released, I’d rather wait till then before jumping in to the fray.

Instead, for this post, I’d like to dig down a level and look at three of the less sexy things that were revealed during the iPad event that could actually end up being quite significant both to Apple and the industry overall.

Apple’s A4 Chip:

blog-a4-chipOutside of the release of the iPad itself, the revelation that it is powered by a custom Apple chip (handling both general and graphics processing chores) could be the most significant thing to come out of last weeks event. While the A4 chip will almost certainly make it into the 4G version of the iPhone, I also expect the A4 (or some variation of it) to also be at the heart of the next generation of AppleTV. This would likely be as part of a move of ATV onto the same OS platform as the iPhone/Touch/iPad, and would probably allow the box itself to be re-engineered to better support HD video (eg - real 1080p) and also to open it up to running games available from the App Store. As a big fan of the existing AppleTV, I see this as something that is long overdue. (I expect it to be announced before mid-2010.)

Another way Apple could leverage the chip this year could be the release of a successor to the Macbook Air based on some version of it. This could give Apple a way to deliver the dramatically improved battery life and graphic muscle of the iPad in the super-thin laptop form factor of the current Air (not to mention integrated “always connected” 3G/4G ). It could even end up running the iPhone OS, and provide the ‘Touch’ aspects either through a substantial trackpad area or directly on the display. While I’m not trying to predict specific product details here, I do see an opportunity for Apple in this segment as well - a hybrid offering blending the best tablet and laptop features for true ‘road warrior’ types.

Ultimately the most exciting thing about the A4 is that it frees Apple from Intel’s lock on mobile processors, and can give them the ability to change both the economics and overall direction of products they launch in this area. And in the hands of Apple, that holds some pretty big promise for the future.

The Touch Based Version Of iWorks:

blog-iworks-ipadApple’s iWorks has been around for quite a few years now, and has matured into a full productivity suite offering word processing, spreadsheet, and presentation applications. While no where near as popular as Microsoft’s Office suite, each component of iWorks is well thought out and a pleasure to work with. Unlike Office on a Windows tablet computer, the new iWorks isn’t simply an extension of the previous version that makes it usable without a keyboard. Instead, iWorks on the iPad has been designed from the ground up to work in a touch environment. From the way various functional menus are displayed to the way task specific virtual keyboards appear in different contexts, every element of the product is designed to be part of a native touch experience. While I will need to spend some quality time with the new iWorks before passing judgment, it does appear that Apple has learned a great deal from iterations of the user experience they developed for iPhone apps, and have done a good job scaling it to more comprehensive applications on larger displays.

While this is impressive on it’s own, what may end up being the most significant aspect of the new iWorks probably isn’t in the code or design at all, but rather in the business model surrounding it. iWorks for the iPad will be sold through the Apple App Store, with each component application available individually for less than $10. That means the entire suite can be bought for under $30 - less than a third of the discounted price Microsoft’s Office 2007 Home and Student edition sells for on Amazon. By unbundling the individual applications, selling them for such a low price, and making them available through their App Store, Apple is clearly challenging the current economic model for the sale and distribution of traditional software applications. This is not without precedent for Apple - even beyond what they did with pricing in the iPhone App space. When Apple moved into producing professional media creation software (known for outrageously high prices), they were able to reset the price points for applications like video editing, compositing, and audio editing in a similar dramatic fashion. It would not be surprising to see this model finally slip over to the Mac, with the desktop version of iWorks taking on similar pricing and packaging to the iPad version - and possibly being sold through the app store as well.

Selling Books In The iBookstore Instead Of On iTunes:

blog-ibookstoreI think the fact that Apple chose to build a completely separate ‘iStore’ for books is interesting. By approaching print publications as truly unique forms of media with unique content and marketplace dynamics, Apple stands a good chance at reshaping the ebook market and really challenging the current dominance of Amazon’s Kindle platform. I believe that what was shown at the iPad launch is simply the most basic starter functionality for this store. I see it ultimately having different business and functional models to address some unique opportunities found in this marketplace. For example:

  • renting eTextbooks for a semester instead of buying them
  • offering subscriptions to magazine and newspaper content via special viewing applications unique to each of them
  • selling content that is pretty much static - like a daily newspaper - with options for dynamic updates
  • integrating social elements to let people discuss or interact around specific titles - much the way a college study group or typical reading club might interact

There is a lot of room in this space to innovate. The upheavals we have already seen happen between Amazon and publishers like MacMillan (almost 2 months before the iPad is even released!) are a good indication of how dynamic this marketplace still is - and just how disruptive Apple’s entry into this space will be. By having an independent store that can evolve quickly and embrace new and unique ways of accessing media, Apple will have the flexibility they need to learn, adapt, and adjust. Success wouldn’t be achievable with a more static approach.

I am firmly convinced that the iPad will have just as significant an impact on the media marketplace as the iPhone did on the mobile phone market. The convergence of these two markets, and the increasing importance of mobile computing will continue to present incredible opportunities for Apple. I believe the three elements I’ve discussed here will be important differentiators for Apple as the aggressively pursue this new market.

I can’t wait for my iPad…

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The Challenge For Google…

Google and Apple always seem to get lumped together as the “new tech titans” that will define our digital future. While no one can deny the leadership each of these great companies has shown in their respective markets, they each represent a fundamentally different view of how this future we are racing toward will unfold. In many ways, Google’s approach to the market is actually pretty similar to that of the company many define as their biggest competitor: Microsoft.

googlechallenge

Both Google and Microsoft take the view that the best way to develop a product is to quickly put out a roughly thought-out “beta” version of it (hardware, software, or service), and continue refining it until it becomes something that might have appeal beyond a hard core tech audience. Products that never get to that critical mass eventually get pruned, and the really successful ones become the drivers of the business. All of the other products or services continue to roll along in limbo, backed by someone in the organization that believes in their potential to succeed but not fully supported by the organization as a whole. This ends up creating a fairly Darwinian environment for these projects to mature in, and the competition that results from it doesn’t always provide the best outcome.

Apple, on the other hand, takes pretty much the exact opposite approach. They rarely release anything that hasn’t been fully thought out, and they focus on getting the core value proposition of an offering to a fairly high level of polish before it goes out the door. Even a product like Apple TV - which is clearly still trying to find it’s footing in the market - was still well integrated into Apple’s iTunes ecosystem from the day it launched. But given it’s evolving feature set and interface, Steve Jobs never misses a chance to refer to it as a “Hobby” product for Apple - clearly distinguishing it from their very successful mainstream offerings. Apple is all about creating an extraordinary consumer experience, anchored by market redefining design and technology. Anything less is unacceptable to them, and they invest years of internal product refinement to try and avoid that kind of failure.

The difference between these two approaches will have an important impact on the long term success of both these companies - positive for Apple and negative for Google.

Because so much refinement takes place before a product hits the market, Apple is able to provide a focused, consistent product and brand strategy across everything they do. Their product sets are diverse enough to cushion market fluctuations in various lines of business, but still linked at a software level that lets them integrate more or less seamlessly. Apple makes a limited number of products, which lets them lavish great attention on each one. And unlike most tech companies, they view a product as the entire user experience with a device - shopping, packaging, design, technology, interface, functionality and support. And that results in products that people don’t just like but are actually passionate about. To Apple, defining the future starts by tapping in to the needs of the individual. And they do that very well.

For Google, in contrast, defining the future starts by tapping in to the power of a collective community - something they also do well. They cast a wide product net, giving them a finger in just about every aspect of evolving internet trends, standards, and technologies. In some areas - like Search based advertising, online video, mapping, and email - they have been incredibly successful. But the number of real Google successes is small when compared to the full suite of services and capabilities they now offer. Just look at the number of significant product betas, open source initiatives, and Google Lab projects that they have active at this point. And even more telling than all of that is that, if you put popularity aside, search advertising still ends up being the only really meaningful source of revenue they have today. While incredibly successful right now, Google as an organization is unbalanced and spread thin. Outside of a few big areas they lack cohesion, with many smaller project teams competing with each other for funding and management attention. This has driven many incredibly bright, entrepreneurial developers, unable to make an impact or accomplish anything meaningful in this environment, to simply leave the company in complete frustration. I personally know a number of them. While this may not matter much to Google while the search ad dollars are still rolling in, it could really end up undermining their competitiveness over the long term. Not only are they losing talent they really could leverage today, they are seeding it to an incredible number of small, innovative companies that could end up competing with them in the future. Web search is still in its infancy, and the web is littered with the remains of once dominant search providers. Google isn’t immune to this, and needs to be careful.

Don’t get me wrong - I use many Google services on a daily basic and I depend on them for a great deal of what I need to do online. They are an extraordinarily innovative company. That said, I don’t have the same passion for Google’s services that I have for Apple’s products. There is a pleasure I get every time I open my Macbook or touch the screen of my iPhone that transcends the basic utility the devices provide. There are very few things in life that are able to deliver that type of experience, and none of them spring from the efforts of a collective. It takes the vision, talent, and desire of individuals to produce a result like that. That is the feeling I hope I’ll get one day from doing a search on Google.

But they still have a long way to go.

This isn’t to say the the next new product from Apple couldn’t be a complete market failure, or that an update to Google couldn’t completely redefine our expectations of web search. Either of those outcomes are possible. And while both Google and Apple are in exceptionally strong market positions today, that shouldn’t be much comfort for either of them going forward. Change is the one constant in the tech world that no one, no matter how big, can avoid. And change can be unforgiving.

After a decade of dominance in the 1990’s, Microsoft struggled to maintain relevance in the evolving internet landscape. Their size, diversity, and lack of clear focus made them slow to react and adapt. They instead tried to use their dominant position to preserve the status-quo that tilted in their favor. When they could no longer do that, the wave of competition that followed upended the entire market, even placing into question the fundamental value proposition Microsoft built their business around. Despite the strength of their significant product franchises like Windows and Office, Microsoft now finds itself in the position of playing catch up in as market that won’t cut them any slack.

The challenge for Google is to avoid a similar fate.

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My Most Anticipated Technologies For 2010…

Happy New Year, everyone!

2010tech

I know 2009 was a tough year for many of us, but I am optimistic that 2010 will have many good things in store for us as the year plays out.

When it comes to the digital world, I believe that 2010 could actually end up being an exceptional year. In this post, I though it would be interesting to discuss some of the key technologies that I believe will make this new year so exciting. With so many things to choose from, I’ve decided to limit myself to just three picks in four areas: Trends, Media, Software, and Gadgets.

Here it goes…

In Trends:

  1. Pervasive MetaData Usage:
    In a digital world, context is key. It is at the heart of how we navigate, search, share and shop. Effective use of context is based on having quality metadata associated with everything we touch digitally. I see the use of metadata accelerating in 2010. TV and Radio will begin adding move of it programming to link you to a range of purchase opportunities based on what they are broadcasting. Search engines will follow the Bing example and create a metadata rich experience around results they display. Geo-tagging will grow in popularity, and GSP will become the driver behind some early ‘augmented reality’ efforts. Metadata will become the fabric that connects everything.
  2. Broad HTML 5 Adoption:
    As tech standards go, HTML 5 is a massive game changer. Services written to the HTML 5 spec can interact with users in pretty much the same way desktop applications do. And they can do it without requiring the common proprietary plug-ins like Adobe’s Flash that rich sites depend on today. Adherence to HTML 5 will also open up the mobile application space to many more players, and might even blunt a bit of Apple’s ‘App Store’ momentum. I expect all of the major browsers to support HTML 5 before the end of 2010.
  3. Corporations Finally “Get” Mobile Computing:
    What makes applications on the iPhone so appealing is that they are NOT designed like traditional computer applications crammed on to a small screen. They respect what is inherently unique about mobile computing, and leverage the more organic interface elements of the device to deliver compelling solutions. Despite it’s massive consumer success, it wasn’t until the release of iPhone OS 3 that the Apple iPhone has became a mainstream corporate solution. But now that the iPhone has become a corporate staple, I expect that demand for delivery of corporate services with a truly mobile character will grow. With that pressure increasingly coming from the C-Suite - where the iPhone has been embraced - the mobile corporate computing experience will finally start to change. 2010 may be the year.

In Media:

  1. Hulu Becomes Available On Hardware Devices:
    Hulu is the go to site on the web for access to television shows and other professionally produced media. As they start to figure out ways to monetize their service, I expect that Hulu will introduce some subscription based model that will move the viewing exp[erience from being exclusively on their site over to set top boxes and possibly even onto portable devices like the iPhone. This would be the next logical step in directly connecting media producers with media consumers, and the first serious threat to the cable monoplies in the US. Bring it on - I’d love to see it.
  2. eBooks/ePublishing Goes Mainstream:
    I am a big fan of eBook readers, and have been for about a decade. After being a little ‘geek niche’ for so long, it seems that the eBook industry is finally starting to reach critical mass. Amazon’s Kindle was one of the hottest gifts this holiday season. Barnes & Noble’s Nook is expected to start shipping in volume by the end of this month, and Hearst corporation’s Skiff - a large format eReader designed expressly for magazines and newspapers, is expected to ship by next quarter. Publishers - though wary - are starting to open up and make more of their titles available for digital download. With the right combination of device, content , and pricing, eBooks could take off in a big way in 2010.
  3. Cable Moves Toward `A la carte’ Pricing:
    With traditional media producers struggling to grow revenue, many have begun looking for ways to pry more money out of their distribution agreements with the cable monoplies. Time Warner just resolved a dispute with FOX over money, and Cablevision is still locked in a struggle with Scripps Networks over pricing for the Food Network and HGTV channels. I only expect this situation to get worse over time as the dollars from traditional advertising models decline. Given the consumer anger these types of high profile squabbles generate, I expect the FCC to make a play to force the unbundling of cable packages and give consumers a more direct say in the programming they receive. While probably not taking the form of a complete a la carte mandate, I do see a shift in that direction happening. With a growing populist sentiment pervading Washington, and difficult mid-term elections coming up in November, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this play out sometime mid-year.

In Software:

  1. Google Chrome OS:
    Chrome OS is the first true internet based operating system targeted at mainstream users. It will offer a fresh rethinking of the way we use applications, tightly integrating cloud storage, social networking, and an ‘app store’ framework into the foundation of the OS experience. While I don’t see it as posing a near term threat to Microsoft’s dominant OS position, I do thing it will redefine expectations of an OS environment, and put downward pricing pressure on Windows bundles. We should have something real to use late in 2010, which is exciting, and it could end up becoming a big seller on netbooks during the next holiday season. That said, we probably wont see a major market impact from Chrome OS until sometime in 2011.
  2. Microsoft Office 2010:
    By delivering a version of their industry standard office suite on the web with Office 2010, Microsoft will be positioning it as their ‘game on’ platform for dominance in web based services. More specifically, Microsoft is directly challenging Google with their online office suite, and I expect this will end up becoming a seminal point in the future delivery of software. However it all plays out between the two tech giants, it will absolutely validate the cloud services model for consumers, and could accelerate the move by corporations away from supporting roll-outs of complex packaged applications. It may also reshape the hardware industry, shifting focus away form higher performance over to more instant-on capabilities - something Microsoft isn’t well positioned for. There is a lot at stake here, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
  3. Windows Mobile 7:
    I have been pretty rough on the Windows Mobile platform in the past, and their latest 6.5 ‘interim’ release has done little to change my opinion of it. That said, Microsoft is very well aware that they are on the ropes with their mobile platform, and that they will need to release something pretty significant to get them back in the game. If Microsoft wants to be a player in the fast growing mobile computing space, Mobile 7 is probably going to be their last, best shot at it. I expect this new release to be a significant update (and departure) from their current mobile architecture and interface, and am guessing they won’t release something unless they really believe it can reestablish their mobile street cred. They came back from Vista with Windows 7, and I’m anticipating something similar to happen here. If the rumored release date is to be believed, we should find out sometime in April.

In Gadgets:

  1. XBox 360’s Project Natal:
    Project Natal is Microsoft’s bid to out-Wii the Nintendo Wii. It places a camera on top of the XBox 360 console display that is able to do a basic form of motion tracking on a player’s movements. For many kinds of games, this tracking can completely replace controllers with physical movements, creating emersive gaming at a level not possible with the Wii. Turn your head and the displayed image turns with it. Make an on screen avatar mirror your body movements exactly - jump, crouch, kick, punch, etc - the same way a player does. While I am not sure just how capable the first release of Natal will end up being - especially if it is sold as an add on to the existing XBox 360 console - this approach will absolutely define the way future generation consoles and games will be designed.
  2. Next Gen Apple TV:
    It’s time for Apple to get out of hobby mode with Apple TV. I am hoping that the Apple TV will finally move beyond it’s current, limited media model to become a more open Web/IP-based settop box. Apple could begin offering streaming content on-demand with both a free and subscription model. Despite their areas of competition, Apple and Google could come together to deliver premium content being released through YouTube. Apple could even become a excellent partner for Hulu, allowing people to view recent programming for some basic subscription price, then linking it to paid downloads people could own and archive. Another thing I would really like to see is for applications - especially games - to come to the Apple TV. Integrate the App Store into iTunes and become a wildcard player in the console space. An iPhone or Touch could sync up with it and turn itself into an incredible gaming controller. There is so much potential here on so many fronts. This may be more wishful thinking than anything else, but my gut tells me 2010 will see the release of the next generation - both hardware and software - of the Apple TV. I sure hope so.
  3. An Apple Tablet (Finally!):
    What can I say that hasn’t already been said about an Apple Tablet. Even though I have owned several very disappointing Windows Tablet PCs, I really do believe in power of the slate form factor for so many computing tasks. Apple has already validated both this concept and the technology behind it with their iPhone/Touch. It just needs to be packaged right for a larger device design. This is an area where Apple usually shines, and I am expecting their new iSlate - or whatever it ends up being called - to be groundbreaking. Hopefully the wait will end later this month. I’d be surprised if I don’t end up wanting one after I see it. Better start saving now.

I’m sure I have some things here that would never have made your own lists while omitting things you feel are more deserving. Make your voice heard in the comments section and let me know.

—-<>—-

I couldn’t end my first post of the New Year without thanking all of you for sharing this blog with me over the past year. I really appreciate all of the feedback and discussion we’ve had, and welcome your suggestions for making this new year even better.

Peace. Happiness. Prosperity.

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Special Purpose Processors…

While Intel has been pouring money and effort into increasing the number of processing cores they can pack on a single chip, they may simply be offering too little, too late. The software industry has already begun to take advantage of other more specialized processors found in today’s computers, and the results are pretty impressive.

Most current desktop computers (and some higher end laptops) have graphics cards that contain multi-core, high speed processors. Software being developed today, especially games and media editing/creation tools, leverage these specialized processors to boost their computational performance. Hard core gamers have even begun adding “physics simulation” processors to help speed-up frame rates and improve the visual realism of 3D environments like those found in First Person Shooters (FPS’s)

crysis_21

These specialized processors allow for a more natural simulation of water movement, light refraction and diffusion, shadow casting and other “natural world” phenomena to make games more believable and immersive. Quality rendering of these types of elements using just traditional multi-core processors would be prohibitively expensive at this point in time, though Moore’s Law will help with that over time.

Another useful type of special purpose processor are those that you can just plug in when you need them. Since I end up doing a lot of video work, my personal favorite “outboard processor” has become the El Gato Turbo.264 HD.

turbo

This processor does one thing exceptionally well. It accelerates the rendering of H.264 video all the way up to HD resolutions. Since H.264 is the native resolution for video on the iPhone and Apple TV, rendering any videos I produce into this format is almost de rigueur. It has reduced rendering times for me by over 60%, and has allowed me to allocate more time to actual editing.

While traditional multi-core processors are critical for efficiently running the kinds of high end, multi-threaded applications found in corporate environments, they don’t add anywhere near the same value to typical consumer focused computing applications. Intel isn’t blind to this, but has decided (after their own failed attempt at developing a graphics processor) to focus on ramping up the number of cores they can deliver on a chip (expect 8-16 core before the end of 2010). The main folks developing specialized graphics processors - NVidia and AMD/ATI - are not resting on their laurels either, and will continue progressing both the clock speed and number of processing pipelines they make available on their solutions. It’s too early to predict winners in this space, but the benefit to consumers from either approach should be significant.

It will be interesting to see which one will ultimately prevail.

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A Look At The New “Joo Joo” Tablet…

The marriage between TechCrunch and Fusion Garage was supposed to bring us an exciting new internet tablet called the CrunchPad. When that relationship fell apart and Fusion Garage co-opted the project (not sure which came first) they simply rebranded the device and have come to market alone with what they are now calling the Joo Joo. Here is a quick demo of it:

From what I can see in this video, the Joo Joo appears to be a well thought out browsing device with sleek lines and a nice looking touch screen. At a suggested price of $499, however, it does seem a bit pricey for what is essentially a “browser in a box”. No clue on battery life either. I believe a device like this - with this larger form factor - needs to offer a “full day” untethered from power. Without significant battery life, it would be hard to justify carrying something this size around with you. That said, it is exciting to finally see a touch screen based tablet come to market, and I would love to see it find it’s niche.

Seeing the Joo Joo, I can only imaging what a tablet device from Apple would offer. I know I’m not alone in thinking this.

Hopefully we’ll have some real competition in this space by early next year.

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A Lot Has Been Going On…

I need to start off with an apology. It’s been over two weeks since my last post, and that’s a long time for me. Unfortunately, I have simply been overwhelmed with things to do this month, and spare time has been hard to come by.

Perhaps the biggest demand on my “free” time has been selling my current house and buying a new one. It’s amazing how many things need to get done as a part of this whole process. And having as much technology in my house as I do, there is a side of this that feels a bit like a data center relocation as well. Wiring, telecoms, automation and control systems all needed to be planned out in the new house. Not only that, but I’ve actually had to start documenting how everything works in the current house for whoever ends up buying it. I’ve been told more than once that my house isn’t exactly ‘plug & play’ by most folks standards.

While this move will give me a chance to update my current technology and streamline some of my infrastructure, there is one piece of tech that I will need to leave behind in this move that I will sorely miss - my home media center:

media-center-cropped

From accessing the internet, to streaming media files stored on servers around my house, to big screen gaming - and even traditional uses like TV and Bluray viewing - this has been the media and entertainment hub of my house for the past 5 years.

The design goal in building this media center was to allow individual technology components to be updated as needed while keeping the basic frame of the system untouched. Everything is built around a rear facing projector/mirror system housed in a “black room” I had built behind the screen. The screen itself (93″ diagonal) is made by Stewart Filmscreen out of optical glass with a high gain coating on it. I’ve already done one major technology refresh in a move from 720p to 1080p without any issues. Even the audio setup - currently wired for 7.1 surround - could easily be extended for the new 9.1 surround systems just coming out on the market. The glass in the doors on the two lighted display cases can easily be replaced with speaker grill panels, and simple wire pulls can be made to the new receiver. A lot of thought went in to future-proofing this set-up.

It will be tough leaving this one behind.

That said, I am really jazzed about making this move. As I start to get things set up in our new home, I’ll post about some of the new technology choices I finally make, and how I end up configuring everything there. I’m excited thinking about the possibilities.

As for my postings through the end of this year, I will do my best to be more timely.

Thanks!

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