There’s a lot of buzz around the new G1 from T-Mobile…
Android, Google’s open sourced phone operating system, is the ambitious software platform powering the G1. It is being compared directly with Apple’s iPhone, and for good reason. Like the iPhone, the G1 has a touch screen, motion/orientation detection, and even includes a real browser. It also has an “App Store” that will let people develop, sell, and purchase mobile applications for the device. Many people believe that the open source nature of Android will help it prevail, and over time become the dominant phone platform in the market.
My money is still on the iPhone…
Android has two significant hurdles that it will need to overcome, both related to it’s open sourced nature. Obstacles I’m not sure it can overcome.
First will be dealing with a multitude of handsets of all different capabilities. Porting the base platform will not be a major challenge – that is really the design premise. Instead, the challenge will be in having applications in the App Store that will be able to run across all of these devices. I just don’t see that happening in any meaningful way. Developers will either need to write to the lowest common denominator Android device, creating uninspired and uninteresting applications, or they will pick one or two devices to support and that will be it.
And that undercuts a big component of value that Android can deliver…
The second significant challenge will be the carriers themselves. Because Android is open source, I expect them to bastardize it all sorts of ways to make it unique to their networks, their media partner deals, their backend services, etc.
Android will definitely be the parent, but each implementation will be a unique sibling. There will be similarities between them all, but also major differences that will make developing a broad ecosystem around them difficult.
It will end up looking like the pre-Linux, UNIX marketplace – fractured…
Apple’s biggest advantage with the iPhone is the fact the it ISN’T open. There is one platform that everyone can develop around. Interfaces can be consistent – albeit creative – and developers can count on having a fixed set of features when they code. Sure, being limited to AT&T is problematic, and the criteria for selling apps on iTunes isn’t exactly clear. But the hardware and software ecosystem around the iPhone is already compelling – and continues to grow stronger.
And unless something changes, I don’t see that happening with Android…
