I’m seeing an interesting shift in the consumer market…
It’s no secret that the general computer user has begun moving away from buying desktop system in favor of laptops. They are relatively portable and energy efficient, and seem to fit into most people’s lifestyles better. But based on personal observations made recently at several computer stores. that trend may be about to change.
No – people aren’t going back to desktops. Instead, they are dropping down to systems with an even smaller footprint than laptops.
Netbooks…
The crowds that used to be around the latest and greatest notebooks on display – the ones with the 18″ HD wide screens or the BluRay burners built in – have moved on. What I saw were people crowded around these tiny systems with 3/4 scale keyboards and very modest storage and performance specs.
But with prices between $300-$400 and incredible portability…
These devices seem to have struck a chord with consumers. Even if they aren’t being purchased as the primary computer someone will use, people will still want these devices to do many of the same things – email/IM, web browsing, watching video, listening to music, and basic word processing – that full fledged laptops do. And those people that are buying a netbook as a second computer will want to move between their systems without worrying about what’s stored on one or the other, or having to buy software licenses for multiple systems.
Exactly the thing web based applications are great at…
Netbooks could definitely be one of the catalysts for a shift to cloud based services. But there is still one more thing they need to make them a tipping point device for true online application ascendancy.
‘Always on’ connectivity…
While there are external options for that offer netbooks wireless mobility today, a better solution would be for the wireless providers themselves to start selling wireless enabled netbooks just like cell phones. If you think about it, even the most expensive netbook sells for less than unlocked versions of smartphones like the Blackberry Bold or the new Storm. If Verizon, Sprint, or AT&T wanted to tap in to this segment of the market, they could easily (and profitably) subsidize netbooks and reach a target price well under $300 with subscriptions to a two year data plan.
And that’s a price point that could be attractive to a lot of people.
Of course the other option that’s been dangling around for a while is for municipal WiFi/WiMax installations to gain traction and become widespread. Given both the budgetary constraints most cities are facing, and political clout of bandwidth providers, I don’t think this will happen any time soon.
Things are changing quickly in this part of the market – even by technology standards. However things play out in this segment over the long term, I do see real demand today for small form factor computing devices at these prices. They fill a need.
But I also believe netbooks, and devices like them, are here to stay…
Why?
On the communications front, having low cost, ubiquitous connectivity could definitely reshape our expectations for how we want to leverage computing resources. The market is definitely moving in that direction. From an application perspective, the range and quality of online applications available today is impressive. And what’s really incredible is that most of them are free.
The bottom line is that connected netbooks are a great focal point for these two trends, and have all the ingredients for long term success.
And based on the reaction I’ve personally seen people have to them, I also think they have what it’s takes for some near term success as well.
I expect netbooks to be one of the hot tech gifts this holiday season…
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Yes.
Totally agree.
Particular in a recession.
Great post.