My Most Anticipated Technologies For 2010…

Happy New Year, everyone!

I know 2009 was a tough year for many of us, but I am optimistic that 2010 will have many good things in store for us as the year plays out.

When it comes to the digital world, I believe that 2010 could actually end up being an exceptional year. In this post, I though it would be interesting to discuss some of the key technologies that I believe will make this new year so exciting. With so many things to choose from, I’ve decided to limit myself to just three picks in four areas: Trends, Media, Software, and Gadgets.

Here it goes…

In Trends:

1. Pervasive MetaData Usage:
   In a digital world, context is key. It is at the heart of how we navigate, search, share and shop. Effective use of context is based on having quality metadata associated with everything we touch digitally. I see the use of metadata accelerating in 2010. TV and Radio will begin adding move of it programming to link you to a range of purchase opportunities based on what they are broadcasting. Search engines will follow the Bing example and create a metadata rich experience around results they display. Geo-tagging will grow in popularity, and GSP will become the driver behind some early ‘augmented reality’ efforts. Metadata will become the fabric that connects everything.
2. Broad HTML 5 Adoption:
   As tech standards go, HTML 5 is a massive game changer. Services written to the HTML 5 spec can interact with users in pretty much the same way desktop applications do. And they can do it without requiring the common proprietary plug-ins like Adobe’s Flash that rich sites depend on today. Adherence to HTML 5 will also open up the mobile application space to many more players, and might even blunt a bit of Apple’s ‘App Store’ momentum. I expect all of the major browsers to support HTML 5 before the end of 2010.
3. Corporations Finally “Get” Mobile Computing:
   What makes applications on the iPhone so appealing is that they are NOT designed like traditional computer applications crammed on to a small screen. They respect what is inherently unique about mobile computing, and leverage the more organic interface elements of the device to deliver compelling solutions. Despite it’s massive consumer success, it wasn’t until the release of iPhone OS 3 that the Apple iPhone has became a mainstream corporate solution. But now that the iPhone has become a corporate staple, I expect that demand for delivery of corporate services with a truly mobile character will grow. With that pressure increasingly coming from the C-Suite – where the iPhone has been embraced – the mobile corporate computing experience will finally start to change. 2010 may be the year.

In Media:

1. Hulu Becomes Available On Hardware Devices:
   Hulu is the go to site on the web for access to television shows and other professionally produced media. As they start to figure out ways to monetize their service, I expect that Hulu will introduce some subscription based model that will move the viewing exp[erience from being exclusively on their site over to set top boxes and possibly even onto portable devices like the iPhone. This would be the next logical step in directly connecting media producers with media consumers, and the first serious threat to the cable monoplies in the US. Bring it on – I’d love to see it.
2. eBooks/ePublishing Goes Mainstream:
   I am a big fan of eBook readers, and have been for about a decade. After being a little ‘geek niche’ for so long, it seems that the eBook industry is finally starting to reach critical mass. Amazon’s Kindle was one of the hottest gifts this holiday season. Barnes & Noble’s Nook is expected to start shipping in volume by the end of this month, and Hearst corporation’s Skiff – a large format eReader designed expressly for magazines and newspapers, is expected to ship by next quarter. Publishers – though wary – are starting to open up and make more of their titles available for digital download. With the right combination of device, content , and pricing, eBooks could take off in a big way in 2010.
3. Cable Moves Toward `A la carte’ Pricing:
   With traditional media producers struggling to grow revenue, many have begun looking for ways to pry more money out of their distribution agreements with the cable monoplies. Time Warner just resolved a dispute with FOX over money, and Cablevision is still locked in a struggle with Scripps Networks over pricing for the Food Network and HGTV channels. I only expect this situation to get worse over time as the dollars from traditional advertising models decline. Given the consumer anger these types of high profile squabbles generate, I expect the FCC to make a play to force the unbundling of cable packages and give consumers a more direct say in the programming they receive. While probably not taking the form of a complete a la carte mandate, I do see a shift in that direction happening. With a growing populist sentiment pervading Washington, and difficult mid-term elections coming up in November, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this play out sometime mid-year.

In Software:

1. Google Chrome OS:
   Chrome OS is the first true internet based operating system targeted at mainstream users. It will offer a fresh rethinking of the way we use applications, tightly integrating cloud storage, social networking, and an ‘app store’ framework into the foundation of the OS experience. While I don’t see it as posing a near term threat to Microsoft’s dominant OS position, I do thing it will redefine expectations of an OS environment, and put downward pricing pressure on Windows bundles. We should have something real to use late in 2010, which is exciting, and it could end up becoming a big seller on netbooks during the next holiday season. That said, we probably wont see a major market impact from Chrome OS until sometime in 2011.
2. Microsoft Office 2010:
   By delivering a version of their industry standard office suite on the web with Office 2010, Microsoft will be positioning it as their ‘game on’ platform for dominance in web based services. More specifically, Microsoft is directly challenging Google with their online office suite, and I expect this will end up becoming a seminal point in the future delivery of software. However it all plays out between the two tech giants, it will absolutely validate the cloud services model for consumers, and could accelerate the move by corporations away from supporting roll-outs of complex packaged applications. It may also reshape the hardware industry, shifting focus away form higher performance over to more instant-on capabilities – something Microsoft isn’t well positioned for. There is a lot at stake here, and it will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
3. Windows Mobile 7:
   I have been pretty rough on the Windows Mobile platform in the past, and their latest 6.5 ‘interim’ release has done little to change my opinion of it. That said, Microsoft is very well aware that they are on the ropes with their mobile platform, and that they will need to release something pretty significant to get them back in the game. If Microsoft wants to be a player in the fast growing mobile computing space, Mobile 7 is probably going to be their last, best shot at it. I expect this new release to be a significant update (and departure) from their current mobile architecture and interface, and am guessing they won’t release something unless they really believe it can reestablish their mobile street cred. They came back from Vista with Windows 7, and I’m anticipating something similar to happen here. If the rumored release date is to be believed, we should find out sometime in April.

In Gadgets:

1. XBox 360′s Project Natal:
   Project Natal is Microsoft’s bid to out-Wii the Nintendo Wii. It places a camera on top of the XBox 360 console display that is able to do a basic form of motion tracking on a player’s movements. For many kinds of games, this tracking can completely replace controllers with physical movements, creating emersive gaming at a level not possible with the Wii. Turn your head and the displayed image turns with it. Make an on screen avatar mirror your body movements exactly – jump, crouch, kick, punch, etc – the same way a player does. While I am not sure just how capable the first release of Natal will end up being – especially if it is sold as an add on to the existing XBox 360 console – this approach will absolutely define the way future generation consoles and games will be designed.
2. Next Gen Apple TV:
   It’s time for Apple to get out of hobby mode with Apple TV. I am hoping that the Apple TV will finally move beyond it’s current, limited media model to become a more open Web/IP-based settop box. Apple could begin offering streaming content on-demand with both a free and subscription model. Despite their areas of competition, Apple and Google could come together to deliver premium content being released through YouTube. Apple could even become a excellent partner for Hulu, allowing people to view recent programming for some basic subscription price, then linking it to paid downloads people could own and archive. Another thing I would really like to see is for applications – especially games – to come to the Apple TV. Integrate the App Store into iTunes and become a wildcard player in the console space. An iPhone or Touch could sync up with it and turn itself into an incredible gaming controller. There is so much potential here on so many fronts. This may be more wishful thinking than anything else, but my gut tells me 2010 will see the release of the next generation – both hardware and software – of the Apple TV. I sure hope so.
3. An Apple Tablet (Finally!):
   What can I say that hasn’t already been said about an Apple Tablet. Even though I have owned several very disappointing Windows Tablet PCs, I really do believe in power of the slate form factor for so many computing tasks. Apple has already validated both this concept and the technology behind it with their iPhone/Touch. It just needs to be packaged right for a larger device design. This is an area where Apple usually shines, and I am expecting their new iSlate – or whatever it ends up being called – to be groundbreaking. Hopefully the wait will end later this month. I’d be surprised if I don’t end up wanting one after I see it. Better start saving now.

I’m sure I have some things here that would never have made your own lists while omitting things you feel are more deserving. Make your voice heard in the comments section and let me know.

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I couldn’t end my first post of the New Year without thanking all of you for sharing this blog with me over the past year. I really appreciate all of the feedback and discussion we’ve had, and welcome your suggestions for making this new year even better.

Peace. Happiness. Prosperity.