Apple's IPad Event: Looking Beyond The iPad…

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There has been so much written about the iPad itself over the few days that I don’t think my fawning over it would add much to the discussion.
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Do I think there will be more in the released version than we saw in the presentation? Yes. Am I excited about the potential of the device? Without a doubt. Will I get one when it finally goes on sale? Absolutely! And though I am pretty pumped about ordering one, there is clearly still a lot of speculation in the media over the true market demand for a device like the iPad. Passions seem high on both sides. Given everything that we still DON’T know about the final functionality of the software/OS and about what types of new content will end up in the various ‘iStores’ by the time the iPad is released, I’d rather wait till then before jumping in to the fray.

Instead, for this post, I’d like to dig down a level and look at three of the less sexy things that were revealed during the iPad event that could actually end up being quite significant both to Apple and the industry overall.

Apple’s A4 Chip:

blog-a4-chipOutside of the release of the iPad itself, the revelation that it is powered by a custom Apple chip (handling both general and graphics processing chores) could be the most significant thing to come out of last weeks event. While the A4 chip will almost certainly make it into the 4G version of the iPhone, I also expect the A4 (or some variation of it) to also be at the heart of the next generation of AppleTV. This would likely be as part of a move of ATV onto the same OS platform as the iPhone/Touch/iPad, and would probably allow the box itself to be re-engineered to better support HD video (eg – real 1080p) and also to open it up to running games available from the App Store. As a big fan of the existing AppleTV, I see this as something that is long overdue. (I expect it to be announced before mid-2010.)

Another way Apple could leverage the chip this year could be the release of a successor to the Macbook Air based on some version of it. This could give Apple a way to deliver the dramatically improved battery life and graphic muscle of the iPad in the super-thin laptop form factor of the current Air (not to mention integrated “always connected” 3G/4G ). It could even end up running the iPhone OS, and provide the ‘Touch’ aspects either through a substantial trackpad area or directly on the display. While I’m not trying to predict specific product details here, I do see an opportunity for Apple in this segment as well – a hybrid offering blending the best tablet and laptop features for true ‘road warrior’ types.

Ultimately the most exciting thing about the A4 is that it frees Apple from Intel’s lock on mobile processors, and can give them the ability to change both the economics and overall direction of products they launch in this area. And in the hands of Apple, that holds some pretty big promise for the future.

The Touch Based Version Of iWorks:

blog-iworks-ipadApple’s iWorks has been around for quite a few years now, and has matured into a full productivity suite offering word processing, spreadsheet, and presentation applications. While no where near as popular as Microsoft’s Office suite, each component of iWorks is well thought out and a pleasure to work with. Unlike Office on a Windows tablet computer, the new iWorks isn’t simply an extension of the previous version that makes it usable without a keyboard. Instead, iWorks on the iPad has been designed from the ground up to work in a touch environment. From the way various functional menus are displayed to the way task specific virtual keyboards appear in different contexts, every element of the product is designed to be part of a native touch experience. While I will need to spend some quality time with the new iWorks before passing judgment, it does appear that Apple has learned a great deal from iterations of the user experience they developed for iPhone apps, and have done a good job scaling it to more comprehensive applications on larger displays.

While this is impressive on it’s own, what may end up being the most significant aspect of the new iWorks probably isn’t in the code or design at all, but rather in the business model surrounding it. iWorks for the iPad will be sold through the Apple App Store, with each component application available individually for less than $10. That means the entire suite can be bought for under $30 – less than a third of the discounted price Microsoft’s Office 2007 Home and Student edition sells for on Amazon. By unbundling the individual applications, selling them for such a low price, and making them available through their App Store, Apple is clearly challenging the current economic model for the sale and distribution of traditional software applications. This is not without precedent for Apple – even beyond what they did with pricing in the iPhone App space. When Apple moved into producing professional media creation software (known for outrageously high prices), they were able to reset the price points for applications like video editing, compositing, and audio editing in a similar dramatic fashion. It would not be surprising to see this model finally slip over to the Mac, with the desktop version of iWorks taking on similar pricing and packaging to the iPad version – and possibly being sold through the app store as well.

Selling Books In The iBookstore Instead Of On iTunes:

blog-ibookstoreI think the fact that Apple chose to build a completely separate ‘iStore’ for books is interesting. By approaching print publications as truly unique forms of media with unique content and marketplace dynamics, Apple stands a good chance at reshaping the ebook market and really challenging the current dominance of Amazon’s Kindle platform. I believe that what was shown at the iPad launch is simply the most basic starter functionality for this store. I see it ultimately having different business and functional models to address some unique opportunities found in this marketplace. For example:

  • renting eTextbooks for a semester instead of buying them
  • offering subscriptions to magazine and newspaper content via special viewing applications unique to each of them
  • selling content that is pretty much static – like a daily newspaper – with options for dynamic updates
  • integrating social elements to let people discuss or interact around specific titles – much the way a college study group or typical reading club might interact

There is a lot of room in this space to innovate. The upheavals we have already seen happen between Amazon and publishers like MacMillan (almost 2 months before the iPad is even released!) are a good indication of how dynamic this marketplace still is – and just how disruptive Apple’s entry into this space will be. By having an independent store that can evolve quickly and embrace new and unique ways of accessing media, Apple will have the flexibility they need to learn, adapt, and adjust. Success wouldn’t be achievable with a more static approach.

I am firmly convinced that the iPad will have just as significant an impact on the media marketplace as the iPhone did on the mobile phone market. The convergence of these two markets, and the increasing importance of mobile computing will continue to present incredible opportunities for Apple. I believe the three elements I’ve discussed here will be important differentiators for Apple as the aggressively pursue this new market.

I can’t wait for my iPad…

Being A Publisher In A Digital World – Part 2…

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This is a follow up to my previous post looking at the challenges most publishers face going digital.

Two weeks ago, Amazon launched a new larger version of the Kindle called the Kindle DX. It is essentially a functional equivalent of the existing Kindle 2, but with a larger 9.7″ diagonal screen to better accommodate highly formatted publications like newspapers, textbooks, and business PDF files. Here’s a quick video overview of the device that Amazon put together:

Given the financial challenges faced by many news organization today, some people have been calling the Kindle DX the last, best hope newspapers have for “going digital” and reducing the costs associated with physical print and distribution. Rupert Murdock even mentioned the interest Newscorp has in creating a Kindle-like device they could leverage as a delivery platform.

While I welcome their growing interest in digital readers, devices like the Kindle DX are hardly a panacea on their own for what ails the newspaper business. Traditional media organizations have a broad set of issues to address, and very little time left to act. If this industry really wants to embrace the digital future, they will need to come to the table with an open mind about what their business should look like. A few points of advice they should consider:

Denial is your biggest enemy:

    As hard as it may be to accept, ink and pulp have no long term future role in the news business. Print newspapers are being kept alive by momentum, and by traditionalists that cling to a physical paper more from habit than anything else. Print based news distribution is dying off and will not recover. Also dying off are the traditional sources of revenue that came from the local monopoly physical distribution gave to newspapers. As tough as this may make things, stop looking for ways to turn back the clock. Remaining relevant will require a massive transformation of the way your business operates, and the products you turn out at the end. Making decisions that try to preserve the past will keep you from taking the tough, decisive actions you’ll need to survive into the future.

Stop confusing the future of journalism with the future of print based news:

    The media is not the message. Unshackled from the constraints of physical publication, journalism has an unprecedented opportunity to flourish. The demand for quality content will continue to grow and there are more ways for journalists to connect with their readers and each other than at any time in history. Think creatively about the opportunities this opens up for transparency and collaboration. Editors can expose some of the debates that take place prior to publication along with the final articles.

    Without the space or media constraints of a physical publication, it will be possible to include a wealth of background materials like original note and audio taped interviews that may be associated with each story published. This could create a unique opportunity for readers to dive behind the distilled perspective expressed in a story, a level of transparency unmatched by any news provider today. Taking this even further, this approach could provide a collaborative foundation that lets other journalists pick up from a published story to potentially explore it from other unique perspectives. Not only could this help you better fill the social watchdog role envisioned by the constitutional foundation of a free press, it may also present you with new revenue generation and cost sharing opportunities.

When it comes to production, start thinking nationally or even globally:

    Having fully independent local news organizations serving local markets doesn’t make sense in a digital world. Centralize as much of the news production process as possible to eliminate duplication and reduce costs. Create the infrastructure to allow regional news to be collected through a network of individual contributors using a “paid-if-published” model. Maintain quality by using local, centralized and even outsourced writers and fact checkers to package it for publication. Focus any of your own local reporting resources on more complex or investigative stories that make sense to develop internally. Keep a local/regional editor and key writing talent on staff, but make the technology investment needed to tie all of these people and assets together into a highly efficient virtual newsroom. Done well, you’ll still be able to maintain an identifiable local voice while producing quality product with greatly reduced fixed cost overhead.

Advertising – hyper-local, personal, and interactive:

    Advertising in the digital content space provides some unique and powerful capabilities. It allows you to identify a specific reader, and target them with ads that are more relevant to their interests and lifestyles. It is also possible to leverage the geo-location services available on many modern digital platforms to serve up ads tied very specifically to their physical location at the time content is accessed. When these two aspects of digital delivery are combined, the ads you serve up can become far more actionable – and potentially far more valuable to advertisers. With the right technical infrastructure in place, ads can even be delivered on a just-in-time basis, allowing local establishments like restaurants and theaters to offer discounts based on real-time availability. It is also possible to create ads that are more like interactive applications. Not only can this type of “app ad” provide some level of immediate value to consumers, it can also become a platform for advertisers to interact with them and potentially monetize their interest. The connected nature of digital ads, creatively leveraged, can open up completely new revenue opportunities for you. While the near term revenue generated from these new ad models probably won’t match what you see today from print advertising, I believe they have the potential over time to out deliver their paper bound counterparts.

Be Ubiquitous:

    Outside of some high value and fairly unique assets, putting a firewall around your content won’t work. The information contained in anything that is published will ultimately make it’s way out to everyone with an interest in it. This is the social dimension that makes the web model so powerful. People will have so many free choices available to them on topics of broad interest that trying to charge for what you produce won’t be practical. It doesn’t matter that your publication may offer stories that are clearly superior to what is freely available. When consuming information, people will move down the path of least resistance, and that means “free” content will be looked at first. Only those people not satisfied by what they see for free will consider paying, and the value they will assign to it will only go to the marginal additional value your content adds. That isn’t much of a market or margin to base your business on. A better way forward is to make your content as frictionless to consume as possible. Make sure it works across all different types of devices. Go out of your way to easily integrate with all of the major social tools and platforms. Add copious meta-data around your content to make it easy for interested people to find it. Syndicate and share. Embrace being digital completely, and count on using advertising and other indirect models to monetize it.

I have no illusion that the advice I’m offering here will be easy for the print media industry to act on or implement. It demands a meaningful investment of already scarce resources, and clearly carries a fair amount of execution risk. On top of that, the industry as a whole will likely be much smaller once this digital transition plays out. However, there is no way to turn back to a pre-digital world, and the half-measures most print publications seem willing to take on the digital front will not be enough to pull them out of the death spiral they find themselves in.

It’s time for them to take decisive action.

The industry is rapidly approaching the point where the current business model will become completely dysfunctional. At some point soon, every news organization will need to reconstitute their remaining assets and capabilities into a business structure that will let them survive and thrive going forward. And those that are aggressive and make this transition early will have a wealth of new opportunities available to them. But to get there, the industry will need to stop thinking of technology as an enemy, and instead embrace it as a partner.

It will be the cornerstone of their future success…