Is The Party Over?…

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This primary season may be a signal of changes in our political landscape…

The power of the ‘long tail’ is being felt in many aspects of our lives. We increasingly want things in our life to be ‘unbundled’ – broken into smaller bits that we can pick and choose from. We Tivo television to watch it on our own terms, and prefer iPods to radio stations. We’re far more inclined to donate to very specific causes than to general charitable organizations. We buy cars today that can be personalized in hundreds of detailed ways. We are becoming a society composed of an incredibly large number of incredibly small demographics.

Often times, a demographic of just one…

This desire to personalize the world around us touches every aspect of our lives – from the media we enjoy, to the news we follow, to the faith we embrace, to the causes we believe in, to the products we consume. And to the parties and politics we subscribe to.

But that’s only a part of the story…

In past elections, it was possible for candidates to “tune” a message for different demographics. When they stumped across the country for votes, their message, language, and tone would change as they moved from area to area. They always had some common themes, but based on the audience, some subjects would be ignored or glossed over, while others would be placed front and center. They could treat each of these stump speeches as local, targeted events.

But not anymore…

In a world where everything gets recorded either officially or unofficially, nothing is local – or even private. Unlike traditional media, bloggers will compare notes and cooperate to track down inconsistencies or fabrications. If a candidate changes positions, or says something controversial, or does something that’s plain dumb, someone – somewhere – will have a record of it. It may be a grainy cell phone video from someone in the audience, or even some archive news footage that someone digs up.

And it will be viral on YouTube before a campaign can spin it…

What we are starting to witness is the nexus of two significant trends – the increasing number of narrow, ‘issue-based’ voter demographic segments, and the rapid decline of effective narrow targeted messaging.

It’s the ‘Long Tail’ meets the ‘Global Village’…

We are starting to see these elements play a big role in the contest between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton. Each side has been beaten down over seemingly contradictory stances they have taken on issues like NAFTA, immigration reform, taxes, campaign finance, or the war effort. They have been haunted by various videos from their past, almost blind to the fact that the same web tools they use to raise cash can be used to raise issues they would rather not face. Each ‘owns’ an extremely loyal core demographic, that may never embrace the other candidate if he or she wins. And party officials are becoming increasingly worried that these demographic fractures may never heal.

We see statistics after every primary contest about how a matrix of demographic combinations voted – religion, race, income, age education, martial status, and gender all come in to play. When you look at all of this in its totality, something becomes very clear.

There is no singular ‘Democratic Party’…

From looking at the conflicting and diverse interests and agendas of the various demographics that make up the party, it seems to be more of a loose affiliation of people that don’t identify themselves as Republicans rather than adherents to a broad, unifying Democratic platform. It’s not a single political body, but a small core of beliefs with many agendas in orbit around it.

And the exact same can be said about the Republican party…

At the ‘outer orbits’ of these political parties are what the media refers to as The Independents. These independents are becoming increasingly important. Neither party can win without attracting them in significant numbers. They are courted heavily by both parties and end up being the swing votes in just about every election.

And that fact isn’t lost on them…

It isn’t hard to imagine that this broad swath of voters could break off from both parties at some point if a credible political figure were to unify them into a true third party. If anything, it’s hard to understand why this hasn’t happened already. The current political parties are really just a facade masking a great deal of frustration and discontent on many issues.

They persist more by momentum than shared fundamental beliefs…

Like it has in every other aspect of society, the long tail will make itself know in the political arena. We are a diverse society confronting significant and complex issues. There is a growing consensus that our current political structure is failing us, and that the problems we face run deeper than simply the failings of one party or the other. The ideas and solutions that rise to the top of our political system are not the best our country has to offer. They are simply the ones that are least threatening to the status-quo. They are designed to sidestep any hard choices and to avoid forcing us to face unpleasant realities.

The process and outcome of this Democratic primary may force us to look more closely at these issues and decide where we will turn next for leadership. The political pundits have all said that this isn’t a campaign about experience.

It a campaign about change.

And they may have been more right than they realize…

Finally – A Technology Agenda…

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Technology issues rarely get respect on the campaign trail…

Despite technology’s critical role in our society, you don’t usually hear candidates talk much about their positions on technology related issues. In a short speech at Google yesterday, Barack Obama did just that. With many candidates that – short of blackberries – are probably pretty technophobic, it is really refreshing to hear someone running for office that seems to understand the bigger digital picture:

As political speeches go, this one was pretty specific. Obama comes down firmly for preserving Network Neutrality and for providing universal broadband coverage – two issues that are very important to me. He also endorses preserving spectrum for non-commercial uses, making government data available online using Open File Formats (a boon to non-Microsoft Linux and Mac users), and creating open forums around pending legislation.

Of everything he mentioned in this speech, perhaps the most interesting is the creation of our first national Chief Technology Officer. We certainly need one. Each division and agency in our government seems to make it’s own technology decisions – many of them very poorly considered. As a national government, we have no cohesive platform or data architecture to build around. There are no clearly defined standards for identity, security, or access. We are running on a set of aging, isolated technologies cut off not just from each other, but from the needs and expectations of the public they are supposed to be supporting.

And the result is a set of poor, inconsistent services…

No business would run itself this way – and neither should our government. As time goes by, addressing this will become increasingly important. A well considered approach to technology could be transformational. Imagine if our government provided standards based access to every service offered online. People would be able to create mash-ups that combined them in logical ways with other services and data, and extend the footprint of these services in ways the government couldn’t do on its own. Even agencies within the government could tie related services from other agencies together, packaging them in less siloed, more consumer friendly ways.

It could be the start of ‘Open Source’ government…

If someone with technical vision and a clear mandate could fill the role of ‘National CTO’, they could open our government up and make it accessible to individuals in ways that the traditional bureaucracy never could. Change at this level could have a positive impact on the entire experience people have when interacting with our government.

I understand that a lot more gets said during a campaign than gets done during an administration, so I am pragmatic about what I think will be accomplished. I also recognize that Network neutrality, preserving public spectrum, and providing universal broadband access probably aren’t defining issues in this election. However, they are important issues, and it’s nice to hear positions on them articulated like this.

We need more elected officials that understand them…

NOTE: Barack Obama and Sen. Hillary Clinton are co-sponsors of legislation that was introduced in the Senate (by Byron Dorgan, D-S.D., and Olympia Snowe, R-Maine) that requires broadband providers to treat all network traffic equally. It would allow broadband providers to create tiered pricing, but require that there is non-discriminatory access to each tier.

Who Says There's No Alternative?…

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The status quo no longer cuts it…

Over the past several decades, our national dependence on imported oil has always been problematic, and it’s starting to become a crisis. One recent issue has been the sharp increase in crude oil prices:

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Part of this price spike is being driven by speculation rather than actual market supply and demand, but the trend here is not our friend. Prices will continue to move upward as global demand increases – especially from Asia. An oil dependent future will not be a bright one for us. And price is just one factor in a complex set of energy policy issues that will continue to challenge us.

We need to change the course we’re on. And we need to do it soon…

When the (then) Soviet Union launched Sputnik I in 1957, it set off alarm bells in this country that we were falling behind technologically, and that our security might be at risk. NASA was formed shortly thereafter, and in 1961, President John F. Kennedy called for America to land a man on the moon and return him safely to Earth by the end of that decade. The technology to achieve that goal didn’t exist at that point, but the will to make it happen was there. It set in motion an impressive period of innovation, where many ideas and approaches that had been floating around were explored and evaluated. And the best of them were funded and developed. There were setbacks and failures on the way, but by July of 1969, a man was walking on the lunar surface.

It’s time for us to challenge ourselves again – this time for energy independence…

We need to feel the same sense of urgency that we felt with Sputnik in the late 1950′s. There are alarms going off on many fronts, and we need to start paying attention. For multiple reasons, making a significant change here needs to become a national imperative.

One is national security. The United States has around 2.5% of the proven oil reserves in the world, and we consume about 25% of all the oil produced globally. The harsh reality is, about 2/3 of the oil we import comes from countries that are either politically unstable or openly unfriendly to us. The money we export for this oil allows many of these countries to work against our national interests globally, and potentially fund activities targeted at attacking us on the home front. Our lack of self-sufficiency in this area also put us in the position of potentially compromising our national values in order to preserve the flow of oil we depend on. In a sense, we have become hostage to our own thirst for oil. This should make every one of us uncomfortable.

Our economic strength is also a consideration. It’s pretty much a given that fuel costs will continue to rise. Global demand for oil is exploding as the economies of Asia expand, and we have no other option now but to pay market rates for it. Unfortunately, rising costs for oil impact every aspect of our economy. Production and logistic costs will continue to go up, and they get passed along as higher prices for goods and services. On top of that, people will have less money to spend after dealing with rising heating and gasoline prices. Combined, these factors could seriously impact the vitality of the U.S. economy and the stability of our financial markets. And that economic and market uncertainty can ripple through to things like employment rates, health and retirement benefits, and the tax base we depend on. These are shifts that will be felt by everyone, but they will have a disproportionate impact on those without the financial means to make adjustments. Ultimately, it will be hard to maintain our position of global economic leadership – a critical driver of our current standard of living – without having a stable domestic economy to back it up.

Another reason for rethinking our approach to energy policy is our need to preserve the environment. The carbon released by the burning of fossil fuels is likely having a measurable impact on climate patterns globally. Any significant changes to our global climate could have profound implications. A shift away from oil as our primary based for energy generation would be a long overdue investment in our planet’s future.

Without a doubt, none of these are easy challenges to deal with…

To make a meaningful, sustainable difference, we have move past the ‘quick fix’ mentality here. This means we have to stop focusing on solutions that simply subsidize the status quo, and instead craft policy that creates incentives for people – and the marketplace – to make correct long term decisions. It requires a radical investment in change.

There are two paths we need to go down…

The first is based on the formation of more effective policies and actions. Though we need to encourage voluntary conservation, it will not be sufficient to get the job done. We need to inject conservation into the formation of public policy. It needs to become part of the structural framework everyone operates under. We should establish efficiency standards that businesses and products must achieve, and create both the economic incentives and disincentives the marketplace needs to realize them. But public policy also needs to be sympathetic to the lives of the people it effects. We need to avoid sponsoring programs that may sound good in theory but few people actually use. They end up being ‘feel good’ measures that simply give the appearance of conservation while squandering financial resources without any measurable benefit to show for it.

To be effective, public policy ultimately needs to be practical…

blog-gaspump-sm.jpgThe second path we need to follow is one of fundamental technical innovation. This needs to go beyond the incremental innovations typically driven by market forces. I envision this as the formation of a ‘NASA’ for energy technology (actually, more like the 1960′s version of NASA). It should be a magnet for the best, brightest and most innovative in the energy field, giving them the resources and opportunity to do groundbreaking work they wouldn’t have a chance to do anywhere else.

While this agency would need to have a clear mission and be accountable for how it spends resources, it shouldn’t be run like a business venture. Fundamental innovation doesn’t happen that way. It will need to be headed by someone respected by other scientists and technologists – not a bean counter or politician. It should shun bureaucracy, and avoid any corporate involvement or sponsorship. Within reason, whatever IP it produces should be licensed using an ‘open source’ style approach, streamlining adoption and encouraging the formation of a new breed of energy related industries. (Industries that will ultimately supplant our existing energy industries.)

Some of the innovations developed from this path might also require significant structural investments to make their adoption practical (e.g. – we needed a national network of gas stations to make the car a viable medium of travel). This would need to be done through a well considered combination of public policy, market incentives, and direct government involvement.

Nurturing these technical ecosystems will be important to their success…

If we walk around believing that everything is fine in this space, we are simply deluding ourselves. We are under the gun to change- both literally and figuratively. That said, there are plenty of special interests lined up behind the status quo, and they have plenty of money to spend to keep things just the way they are. They will spin the media and aggressively lobby congress in an effort to preserve their ‘business as usual’ approach.

Change on this scale will not come easy, and will require the backing and commitment of people at the highest levels of both business and government. It will need to spring from a non-partisan recognition of the urgency of our current situation, and a passionate belief in the great things we can achieve as a nation when we have the focus and will to do it.

And most importantly, it will require all of us to stand up and demand nothing less…

A Video On How To Vote…

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Connecticut will be using a new optical voting machine this election…

To help with the transition from the previous lever based mechanical systems, Connecticut Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz posted an instructional video on how to use the new system. One version is available for download to an iPod, and a second version is available on YouTube:

The details on access to these videos comes by way of a PDF formatted press release found on the web site of the Secretary of the State.

To watch the video, you will need high speed access to the web, have either Adobe Fash or Acrobat installed, find the press release with the links to the videos, and either load it to an iPod or watch it on YouTube.

Easy – right?…

Unfortunately, I think the demographic that will most likely have trouble with the new optical voting system will be equally challenged with accessing this help video. The whole process is skewed to a youth audience that probably doesn’t need the voting help to start with.

What Connecticut didn’t do was simply embed the video on an obvious page on their state site (like I was able to do here) with an easy link to Flash for those that don’t have it installed. They could reach a lot more people that way, and hopefully better serve the public good. That said, a copy of the video will be playing at each polling place as well. Its unfortunate, but about 25% of American households are still not connected to the internet, and about half of those are via dialup.

Any use of technology for technology’s sake is a waste, and only serves to exacerbate the already fractious digital divide that exists in our society. I support and applaud the expanded use of the web by our government, but it needs to happen in a way that’s mindful of the needs of all the people they serve. It shouldn’t be focused on just one specific part of the electorate.

Perhaps its time for a national effort to provide access to both the training and technology necessary to bring everyone online. It’s hard to envision the US preserving its status as a leading economic and cultural force in this world without making a better effort in this regard. Like basic literacy a century ago, digital literacy is a key component of an open, educated, and free society. It should be important to everyone on both a personal and national level.

And seeing people potentially disenfranchised through digital illiteracy is just one example of why this matters…

NOTE: A correction was made to this post noting that the video will be available for viewing at polling places as well as on the web.

YouTube Joins The "Debate"…

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Google/YouTube has joined with CNN to add a new twist to the televised political debate format we have all become used to. In tonight’s Democratic presidential candidate debate, instead of coming from the usual talking heads, questions will be asked by ordinary people via videos submitted to YouTube. A few dozen questions have been chosen from almost 2000 submitted videos, and they will be played on-air for candidates to then respond to.

This approach seems to have created a bit of media buzz around the debate, and the possibilities it may hold for the fusion of traditional and social media. This quote from the Seattle Times is typical:

The CNN-YouTube debate is being heralded for turning a new page in presidential politics, beginning to transform staid debates into an endeavor taken in the spirit of YouTube: technology-driven, a little offbeat and with voters at the controls.

The problem with all of this is that it only gives the illusion of a meaningful discussion of the interests and concerns of the public. The questions are still being chosen by CNN – the strong hand of traditional editorial control is still very much in play, despite the fact that people could have ended up choosing their own top list right online at YouTube. And no doubt, some issues being raised may be given an emotional resonance if asked by individuals directly effected by them: the trials and frustrations of the uninsured and unemployed are genuine. But the solutions to problems like these are not simple, and can not be easily distilled down to a two minute response by a candidate.

But the well rehearsed platitude can be, and that’s all we’ll likely get…

Irrespective of who is asking the questions or how they are delivered, we aren’t likely to get any meaningful debate out of this forum. It’s taking place in a framework that still rewards the empathetical yet shallow response. And that won’t really move us forward as a society on coming up with workable solutions to challenging issues. Or in picking the person best qualified to get something done.

A big part of the problem is an ‘old media’ one – time constraints. This entire debate is being constrained by a two hour window – all the candidates, all the questions, all the commercials.

But what if that weren’t an issue?…

The debate format isn’t an end in itself, but a means to an end. It is designed to let individuals with differing views challenge each other in a way that keeps the discussion honest, and highlights the strengths and weakness of each individual’s position. Over time, we have watered down this kind of exchange into a shallow media event, but still wrap it in the name “debate” to lend it a cachet of credibility it doesn’t deserve.

Addressing complex issues boils down to addressing the compromises and tough choices they each demand. What worthy issues won’t get funded so other worthy issues can? What sacrifices or lifestyle changes will people need to make to implement specific policy initiatives on the environment or with health care or reducing our dependency on foreign energy?

Details – not platitudes…

We need to move from ‘sound-bite’ debates into discussions of substance on these types of issues. In an online media world, this could happen. There aren’t the same time constraints here. For example, we could look into focused question and answer sessions with each candidate individually by a mixed panel of experts, journalists, and concerned citizens. Each Q&A session could stick to one specific topic and explore it to some depth. There could be online forums around these sessions (moderated only for topical relevance) that maintain the discussion and allow for an ongoing interplay between the candidates and individuals. And with the right search technology/taxonomy around it, and when combined with tools like RSS, it could be very open and accessible.

People could view the full depth of each candidates response to the questions that mean the most to them, or just skim through the transcripts of others. They could rate them. They could read the followup discussions and add comments. They could call out candidates on any half truths and exagerations and link to the sources of their assertions. It could be participatory in a way simple video question submissions aren’t.

And the candidates could respond back as well…

There isn’t one right way to do it, and it will take some experimenting to find the most effective models to use. But like everything else in the online space, it will evolve and change rapidly to find something optimal.

Would there be a lot of noise? Of course – thats in the nature of social discourse. But tools for reputation and ranking could help cut through a lot of it. And so could the traditional media – mining and exploring the most relevant issues that emerge from this type of forum. In some ways, this could presage a media role reversal where some issues start emerging in social media channels and then get picked up and discussed by traditional media. Thats a trend we are starting to see already and that I would love to see more of.

Is it perfect? Not by a long shot. But neither are forums featuring ‘celebrity journalists’ that are reluctant to ask tough questions and challenge weak responses for fear of being punished and losing access.

As much as I’d like to applaud YouTube’s involvement here, it feels too much like a gimmick to me. It seems like CNN just wanted to add a ‘new media’ spin to what will end up being the exact same type of event we’ve always had. And by doing that, it sells the whole model short. Social media has the power to do a lot more than bump ratings.

And it deserves to be more than a side-show…

Iraq: The Need For A Reasoned Debate…

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It seems that debate over our future role in Iraq is starting to heat up…

Part of this is being driven by the looming September deadline Bush has set for assessing the effectiveness of the recent troop ‘surge’ there. Part is driven by the continuing stream of bad news from Iraq, and the seeming inability of the Iraqi government to step up and take control of their own country. And part is being driven by how important the Iraq War will be as an issue in the coming presidential election. Having a national debate about what we are doing in Iraq is long overdue.

But to be productive, it needs to be based on reason – not emotion…

We became involved in this war because we were swept up by compelling visceral arguments that turned out to be backed up more by conjecture than fact. In substituting emotion for reason, we ended up paying a steep price – the loss of thousands of American lives, the loss of untold tens of thousands of Iraqi lives, and a climate of fear and suffering for many in a country being torn apart by political, sectarian, and terrorist driven violence.

Our actions in Iraq have had profound consequences – many of them unintended…

We have to do what we can to avoid similar unintended consequences in deciding how we should move forward. I believe there are two key elements to doing this that seem to be lacking in the current debate. The first is we need to stop focusing on all of the things we did or didn’t do in the run-up to going to war in Iraq. The second is we need to acknowledge that we are in the middle of a very complex situation without easy answers.

To my first point… How we ended up in Iraq is an extremely important topic. There are many questions around the process and decisions that brought us into this war that demand answers. But debating those questions won’t necessarily offer much insight into what we should be doing next, and might end up politicizing the discussion in a non-productive, emotional way.

Should we get answers these questions? Absolutely! It just shouldn’t be part of this particular debate. What we should focus on instead is what has and hasn’t worked on the ground in Iraq – both politically and militarily. That should be the catalyst for generating discussion around new ideas and approaches. We need to draw on the past for perspective, but be forward looking in thought.

To my second point… We went in to Iraq believing that we would achieve a quick military victory, be welcomed as liberators, and with the Iraqis as new found allies, work together to build a beacon of democracy that could transform the Middle East. That was the plan, but it turned out that things were a lot more complicated than that. Because we hadn’t really thought everything through, we found ourselves unprepared for the reality we needed to deal with, and have probably been trying to recover from some early missteps every since.

In looking at what we should do next, it would be foolish for us to take precipitous actions simply because they seem like the right thing to do.

That’s what got us into the situation we are in now…

And if anything, the situation is now more complex and more volatile than it was when the war started. Any actions we take – or don’t take – could have a significant impact on the security and stability of the entire Middle East. They could impact our security here at home. They could impact us in significant ways economically – and therefore socially. We need to consider all of these factors before we act.

And we can’t simply go back to where things were before…

Whatever we choose to do – stay or leave, surge or reduce, train or fight – there will be significant consequences, both immediate and long term. This is where our debate should focus. Our politicians should raise the national discussion above accusation, fear mongering, guilt, or anger, and into the realm of thoughtful understanding. This is far too important to be framed by the pettiness of political agendas.

In this debate, we need to unite as Americans on a platform of reason…

The 'Semantics' Web…

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I caught a podcast this morning from Charles Grodin that talked about a CNN/Anderson Cooper segment looking into ‘legislative earmarks’. In case you don’t know, ‘earmarks’ are the little (and sometimes not so little) riders that our representatives add on to various pieces of unrelated legislation to fund pet projects in their districts. And have no doubt – all of this ‘back door’ spending adds up.

In 2006, Congress handed out $29 billion through earmarks…

When the Democrats took control of the House in this past election, they promised they would crack down on this practice. Unfortunately, little has been done to date, and no one from either party really wants pay any more than lip service to eliminating earmarks.

Here is the clip from Anderson Cooper 360 that Charles Grodin was referring to:

It’s obvious from this clip that many of our elected officials are uncomfortable with making their earmarks public. They have the misconception that they do not need to be accountable to the public – an arrogance that becomes clear in their refusal to disclose how they are trying to spend our money. (Kudos to those 6 that did disclose, and the 5 others with no earmarks at al!)

While it’s clear that our elected officials have no desire to eliminate earmarks, what they do want to eliminate is the use of the word ‘earmark’. According to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, these should be called ‘legislatively directed spending’ instead.

No crackdown on the practice. No transparency requirements. Just a name change.

Maybe they should have just called it “Business As Usual” instead…

It’s no wonder people are so turned off by politics. While the rest of society has become more connected, open, and transparent, so many of our leaders look increasingly isolated and out of step. It’s time we stop voting for political parties and start voting for our beliefs. We need a fundamental rethink of the way things need to are working.

Or more specifically – not working.

Having our elected officials use semantic nuances to try to spin a web of confusion further undermines their rapidly diminishing credibility. And its our two party system that props them up and lets them get away with it. This nation will never reach its potential without some fundamental changes in our government.

Preserving the status-quo there just doesn’t cut it anymore…

Some Campaigns Are Web Clueless…

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Republican Presidential candidate Ron Paul’s team has a lot to learn…

ronpaul-photo.jpgOver the weekend, I received a comment on The Digital Edge from someone acting on behalf of the Ron Paul 2008 campaign. In the comment, he discusses the erosion of freedom that is taking place today in America, and exhorts people to act and get involved. The comment had links, of course, to the Ron Paul campaign web site.

These are important issues, and they absolutely should be discussed in the public sphere.

Spaming blogs is just the wrong way to go about it…

In the opening sentences of the comment, the writer admits what he is doing:

Why did I just spam your blog? I spammed it because america is under attack…

(Emphasis Mine)

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If Ron Paul – or any candidate – wants to reach out and persuade people, they need to do it by blogging about issues themselves, and becoming active in the discussions already taking place on blogs all around the web. Having surrogates post ‘comments’ having nothing to do with any active discussions at various sites won’t help anyone’s cause.

By not understanding how the blogosphere works, Ron Paul’s team has ended up damaging his crediblity with an important – and potentially fairly sympathetic – group of influencers. Campaigns need to bring web literate people on board to advise them on how to reach out to a digital audience. Ron Paul was clearly not well served by whoever made the call to post these ‘spam comments’ all around.

And neither were the principles he is fighting for…

Election 2008: A Break With The Past?…

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This presidential election is shaping up in some interesting ways…

Those pundits and prognosticators looking to previous presidential elections for guidance might need to rethink that approach. The current election is shaping up to be quite a different beast.

We have an increasingly compressed primary schedule that makes it harder for candidates to simply focus on Iowa and New Hampshire to gain visibility, credibility, and funding for the long-haul. This will clearly call for new strategies, and could end up either savaging the field down to just one or two survivors in just a few weeks, or diluting the focus across multiple candidates that each place more individual focus on specific states.

In addition, even though there are a lot of candidates on both sides with their hats in the ring, there seems to be a general level of disaffection with the choices people feel they have. No one candidate seems to light up the base of either party. Rumors seem to constantly pop-up about potential candidates like Al Gore or Fred Thomson entering the race – not a good sign for those already committed.

And to further muddy the waters, there is a strong posibility that we could have an independent candidate join the race. While there have been independent candidates before, they have had their own individual challenges. They were either on the crazy side (Ross Perot) or on the fringe of current political thought (Ralph Nader).

The rumored independent in this case is Michael Bloomberg – Mayor of New York. These rumors have been given renewed credibility by his announcement today that he will leave the Republican party to become an independent – a move many see as a precursor to an actual campaign announcement. Bloomberg is an incredibly bright and effective mainstream politician – one who also happens to have a few billion dollars laying around to fund his own national campaign.

Think no one will vote for an independent? Look at the results from an informal Time/CNN poll on this question:

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Bloomberg has the intellect and stature to compete with any of the other candidates in the field, and could conceivably be the most effective independent candidate ever to run for the office of president.

There’s a lot in play here, and not a lot of relevant historical precedent to fall back on.

It’s just starting to get interesting…

Time To Refocus The Universal Service Fund…

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The United States wants everyone to be connected…

That’s the theory at least.

There’s long been a tax on traditional telephone service to help make that a reality. The monies collected under this tax go into what is known as the Universal Service Fund (USF) – a fund established to subsidize telecommunication services to rural areas of the country as well as to schools and libraries. Since its inception a little over 20 years nearly $60 billion has gone in to this fund.

But you wouldn’t know it from the results…

If you look at the numbers in reports from the FCC, substantial sums have been spent on this program. But according to an analysis by Daniel Berninger, VP and Senior Analyst at Tier1 Research, subscriber growth is tiny. The net result is that each additional line added under the USF between 1996 and 2005 has cost a wopping $16,000. That is simply unbelievable.

What started out as a noble aspiration of connectivity for all has lost its way in a maze bureaucracy and political lobbying. It’s a program more focused on preserving the status quo and plowing money back into the pockets of the traditional carriers then on actually connecting the people it is chartered to connect.

It’s time to push reset and start this one over…

It is in the national interest to preserve the objectives of this program, but it needs to be totally gutted and refocused. There should be only one goal for this rebuilt Universal Service Fund.

Universal internet connectivity…

ip-based-usf.jpgEvery other goal of the program will spring naturally from that. Money should be spent to deploy technologies like WiMax that can cost effectively address data connectivity needs in demographically sparse areas. VoIP should be the foundation of all telephony and voice services under the program – POTS lines should explicitly be excluded. A WiMAX like infrastructure could allow for both home based and mobile voice services, while also providing basic web connectivity and even the delivery of the “must carry” list of broadcast television channels.

I am sure that the big telcos that currently benefit from the Universal Service Fund will fight any substantive changes tooth and nail, but there are some cases where the government needs to take the lead and simply do what is right regardless of political consequence.

This is one of them…

After the initial build out, it’s possible that the fund could be scaled back to focus on a more narrow, tactical mandate, or eliminated all together as an open IP based infrastructure drives costs down and competition up.

Hopefully, this would end up leaving the folks in urban areas clamoring for the same benefits their rural bretheren would be enjoying through their open infrastructure. If it did, it could help us reach the tipping point that topples the antiquated gatekeeper/monoply based telecommunications infrastructure we have today, and replace it with an IP based one that is open and competitive.

One we can build a 21st century society on.

Getting us to that point should be the real goal of “Universal Service”…